And now there are growing signs that Mr. Kennedy and his fellow third-party candidates may not cost Mr. Biden after all. In fact, they, especially Kennedy, could probably get even more out of Trump.
Two high-quality polls conducted since Sunday bear this out.
The latest information comes from Marist College on Monday. In the national head-to-head race, Biden has 51% of the vote and Trump has 48%. But when third-party candidates such as Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West are taken into account, Biden’s lead increases to 5 points, larger than the poll’s margin of error of 3.6 points. .
Marist has long been one of Biden’s better polls. But this is his best result in months of high-quality polling.
Sunday’s NBC News poll showed a similar trend. Biden led by 2 points (44-46) in head-to-head contests, but when the question included third-party candidates, Biden led by 2 points (39-37).
Both NBC results are within the margin of error, but the key here is the 4-point shift to Biden when third-party candidates are included. It’s really something we’ve never seen before.
And Kennedy is a big reason for that change. He has twice as much support from voters who previously chose Trump (15% of voters) as from voters who previously chose Biden (7%) on a direct question. Biden is giving up more votes to Stein than Trump, but that’s a bigger factor considering Kennedy has received more votes throughout the campaign.
(This poll is also the latest poll to show that Kennedy’s image among right-wing voters is much better than his image among left-wing voters.) Democrats favor it by 40 percent to 15 percent (plus-25 split); dislike He had a 53-16 — minus-37 split. )
According to Marist polls, Kennedy has only slightly more support from actual Republicans (10%) than Democrats (8%). But it suggests he is drawing more input from pro-Trump independents.
Among independents, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are tied at 49%, but when third-party candidates are included, Mr. Biden has a 34-30 lead among independents.
Similar to the NBC poll, Kennedy has more support among Trump direct voters (17%) than Biden voters (11%).
These are perhaps the most convincing recent polls to suggest that Kennedy and broader third-party influence are not hurting and may help Biden, but these are the only Not.
- Right-wing pollsters showed last week that Trump’s lead had dropped from 4 points to 2 points when third-party candidates were included.
- Other recent polls, including the Yahoo News/YouGov poll and the Marquette University Law School poll, show essentially no change or a slight change for Biden.
- A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in mid-April did not offer Mr. Kennedy or any other third-party candidate as an option, although some respondents volunteered. there was. Who were the people who volunteered for Kennedy? 3 percent of Trump voters in 2020, but less than 1 percent of Biden voters in 2020.
All of this paints a picture of a dynamic situation with third-party candidates.
Democrats are less enthusiastic about Trump’s candidacy than Republicans, so Biden has likely suffered more among them in the past. Moreover, both Mr. Stein and Mr. West are clearly to the political left of Mr. Biden, and at least Mr. Kennedy has a name that may resonate with more casual left-wing independents.
But what typically happens as a general election progresses is that voters gravitate toward two-party candidates because they have a real chance of winning, and third-party candidates fade away. That’s true.
Perhaps what we’re starting to see is that voters who don’t like President Trump are shifting from flirting with third-party candidates to supporting Biden. Perhaps Kennedy’s much better image among right-wing voters, or his penchant for Republican-leaning conspiracy theories, is beginning to emerge. Or perhaps Trump’s personal issues surrounding his first criminal trial are starting to have a larger impact, though it’s too early to say for sure.
The battle is far from over, especially given that both sides will likely spend the next six months or more trying to attract Kennedy to the other side’s politics. Biden appeared last week with members of the Kennedy family, who have distanced themselves from their relatives’ campaigns. And at least some Republicans, worried about Kennedy’s influence, are starting to fight back, attacking the candidate they once endorsed when Kennedy was challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination.
Democrats aren’t going to stop worrying about this. Because worrying is one of the things they’re best at. But if you’re a Democrat now, things seem to be moving in the right direction.
