Israeli officials were encouraged by what a senior Biden administration official described as a “tremendous” success in shooting down more than 300 Iranian munitions over the weekend with the help of partner nations. And they are happy with the newfound international support they have received in this crisis. But “a strong defense alone is not enough,” a senior Israeli source insisted.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant argued to Americans that Israel needs a very strong deterrent to survive in the Middle East, and that defense is not necessarily enough to deter Iran. Mr. Gallant has emerged as an increasingly important voice in the War Cabinet, and is in frequent contact with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and other senior U.S. officials.
For the Biden administration, Israel’s determination to climb a new ladder will likely be a disappointment. Officials had hoped that quelling Iran’s missile attacks would be a sufficient show of force that a period of lull in the broader Gaza conflict might follow. After the defeat of the Iranian attack, President Biden advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take things slow and think things through.”
But like other American appeals for de-escalation, this appeal appears to have been rejected by Israeli leaders. They consider their adversaries to have crossed past “red lines” in their willingness to slaughter Israelis – with the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack and subsequent Iranian weekend shelling, the US and Israeli officials believe it was intended to cause significant damage and loss of life.
Israeli officials also rejected Iran’s pretext for the attack, which was that it attacked diplomatic facilities that were effectively part of Iran’s sovereign territory when it attacked Quds Force commanders in Damascus. Israel claims that although the Iranian flag may have been flown outside the facility it attacked, it was not officially designated as a diplomatic facility.
Iran’s claims about the sanctity of its diplomatic facilities are also unconvincing for a regime that tolerated the 1979 takeover of the American embassy in Tehran and celebrates it to this day. It has also recently tolerated attacks on British and other diplomatic facilities in Tehran.
As Israeli officials consider a response to an Iranian missile attack, they face a perennial deterrence dilemma. It’s about how a country can demonstrate its willingness to use force and master the cycle of escalation without creating the exact crisis it wants to avoid. Israel’s hardline stance on this issue has deterred some conflicts, but likely created some others.
For generations, Israeli leaders have argued that their unyielding position is essential to survival in the brutal and unforgiving Middle East. One could question, as some US officials have, whether this logic really worked for Israel. But the atmosphere Monday night was a reminder that no matter what outsiders may think is best, Israel will make its own decisions regarding security. Ta.
