Iran-Israel tensions, China’s first quarter GDP

China’s industrial production rose 4.5% in March from a year earlier, falling short of the 6% expansion expected by Reuters.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s manufacturing industry grew by 5.1% and mining by 0.2%. The country’s electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry rose 4.9%.

The country’s retail sales, an indicator of consumption, rose 3.1% from a year earlier, lower than the expected 4.6% increase. Growth also slowed down from the 5.5% increase in the previous month.

—Li Yingshan

New home prices in China have fallen for nine consecutive months, falling 2.2% in March compared to the same month last year.

This is faster than February’s 1.4% decline and the biggest decline in home prices since August 2015, according to LSEG data.

On a month-on-month basis, the prices of new houses in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% from the previous month, while sales prices of new houses in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.4% from the previous month. each month.

First-tier cities include the capital Beijing, as well as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.

— Lim Huijie

The Japanese yen has fallen to more than 154 yen against the US dollar, its lowest level since June 1990.

Since the Bank of Japan raised interest rates on March 19, the yen has remained firmly above the 150 yen mark, and Japanese officials have said that “all options are on the table” to counter excessive yen movements. “Yes,” he repeatedly said.

According to Reuters, former currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe said on April 4 that authorities would not intervene until the yen rose above $155 against the dollar.

Oil prices were volatile in April due to heightened geopolitical risks.

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— Ganesh Rao

Asian markets have had a mixed start to the year, with investors focusing on India, Japan and increasingly China.

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— Amara Balakrishna

Oil markets on Monday ignored Iran’s air attacks on Israel over the weekend, with both U.S. crude and global benchmarks settling slightly lower.

West Texas Intermediate’s May contract fell 25 cents, or 0.29%, to settle at $85.41 per barrel. Brent futures for June fell 35 cents, or 0.39%, to settle at $90.10 a barrel.

Markets had already priced in the risk of a telegraphed attack by Iran for several days, and traders breathed a sigh of relief after Israel and the United States intercepted nearly all of the missiles launched.

What happens next will depend on how Israel responds.

“In our view, what is not priced into the current market is the possibility of continued direct conflict between Iran and Israel,” Maximilian Leighton, Citi’s head of commodity research, said in a note to clients. Depending on how Israel responds to the attack, oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel, analysts wrote.

— Spencer Kimball

The major indexes resumed their decline on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index down about 1.7%, below its 50-day moving average.

This is the first time since November 3, 2023 that the tech stock ratio has fallen below this important threshold. If the stock closes below this level, it will be the first time since November 2, 2023. The index is up more than 30% in 2023. Last 12 months.

The 50-day moving average is a technical indicator that traders look at to assess short-term trading trends. A closing price below this level can signal an upcoming downtrend for the asset.

— Darla Mercado, Nick Wells

The turmoil in the Middle East could cause dramatic movements in financial markets, with oil prices rising to $100 and stock markets undergoing a major correction of as much as 10%, according to British investment bank Liberum Capital.

“In our base case of Israel retaliating, this could result in a 5-10% stock market correction and further USD appreciation, in a limited way to prevent further escalation of the conflict.” 2007 Client He said this in a memo to:

The company has identified clear near-term winners, including defense contractors.

— Yun Lee

Stock futures rose after March retail sales data came in better than expected.

The indicator increased by 0.7% in the same month, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This beats the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a 0.3% rise and confirms the trend of continued spending despite rising prices in the United States.

— Alex Harring, Jeff Cox