U.S. officials say Russia is unlikely to make any major territorial gains in Ukraine in coming months because poorly trained Russian forces have struggled to penetrate Ukrainian defenses fortified with Western weaponry.
Russian forces used the occupation of Akhdiivka to seize territory outside the city of Kharkiv in the spring and early summer as a way to resume their offensive into eastern Ukraine, which has left Russia with thousands of dead and wounded and little new territory.
The Russian issue represents a major shift in the dynamics of a war that has favored Moscow in recent months: Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but Ukrainian military intransigence has slowed Russia’s incremental gains.
The coming months will not be easy for Ukraine, but allied leaders gathering in Washington this week to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO can rightly claim that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.
“Ukrainian forces are stretched thin and will face difficult fighting in the coming months, but the chances of a major Russian breakthrough are low at this point,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.
At the summit, he is expected to promise new financial aid to Ukraine, announce plans to coordinate arms deliveries by the allies and reinforce his promise to Kiev to eventually become a full ally.
That last point is a bigger focus of the war than the territorial gains that Ukrainian officials say they are fighting, but a growing number of U.S. officials see the conflict as more about Ukraine’s future in NATO and the European Union.
The summit raised concerns that Russia could acquire weapons, particularly missiles, drones and components for manufacturing them, from Iran, North Korea and China.
And as the devastating war enters its third year, there are real concerns about Ukraine’s ability to keep its infrastructure, including its power grid, functioning in the face of long-range Russian attacks.
But the biggest uncertainty may be U.S. policy toward Ukraine after this fall’s presidential election.
Russia is not in a position to occupy large parts of Ukraine, but Kiev’s chances of seizing more ground from the invading forces are fading. Urged by U.S. advisers, Ukraine is strengthening its defenses and focusing on striking deep behind Russian lines.
Eric Ciaramella, a former intelligence official who now works with Kooffman as an expert on Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the past 18 months have made it clear that neither Russia nor Ukraine “has the ability to significantly shift the front lines.”
Ciaramella said the U.S. has always had a “democratic, prosperous, European and secure Ukraine” as its strategic objective. According to Ciaramella and current U.S. officials, the U.S. and its allies need to make long-term investments to ensure Ukraine can maintain a defensive line and wear down and damage Russia.
“It’s still a very unstable scenario,” Ciaramella said, “which is why Western leaders also need to get serious about integrating Ukraine into the European and transatlantic security architecture.”
The European Union agreed last month to begin accession negotiations with Ukraine, a significant step in a lengthy accession process. NATO is not yet ready to invite Ukraine to join, but allied leaders are expected to approve language this week that would all but commit Ukraine to becoming an ally.
The statement is aimed at avoiding a repeat of last year’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, when leaders declared “Ukraine’s future is NATO” but stopped short of offering a specific invitation. Diplomats called the puzzling language “word salad,” and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy complained angrily that no deadline for membership was given.
Ukraine’s entry into NATO seemed a distant prospect until Russia invaded in 2022. Allies were reluctant to provoke Russia or assume seemingly enormous security responsibilities. Since then, Ukraine’s cooperation with the United States, Britain and other European countries has strengthened, and Western countries have poured billions of dollars into training and equipping the Ukrainian military.
Keeping Ukraine out of NATO has been Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s goal since the start of the war, and ironically, his invasion made it more likely. Peace talks in April 2022 collapsed because of Moscow’s insistence on Ukrainian neutrality and veto over any outside military aid.
Since then, Ukraine has placed greater emphasis on integrating into Europe.
Russia seized Ukraine’s most pro-Russian regions in the first year of the war, and U.S. officials say privately that Ukraine will likely never be able to retake all of its territory, but that success on the battlefield could help make the case for greater European integration.
Some officials say Ukraine could emerge as a winner in the war by moving closer to NATO and Europe, even if it never formally retakes any territory.
Officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss secret military and intelligence assessments, battlefield layouts and delicate diplomacy.
U.S. officials acknowledge that Russia could make significant progress if it made a major shift in strategy, such as expanding its recruitment and training programs.
A change in U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia would upend their predictions.
Under the Biden administration, the United States has provided military advice, real-time intelligence and billions of dollars worth of weapons.
Former President Donald J. Trump promised to open peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if elected. He has not outlined the peace terms he seeks, but quick negotiations would force Ukraine to give up large swaths of territory and give up its ambitions to join NATO.
But officials say it would be a mistake to demand that negotiations begin now.The roughly $61 billion in aid approved by Congress in May after months of wrangling is helping shore up Ukraine’s defenses and thwart Russian advances on its territory.
Throughout the war, U.S. intelligence agencies were far more pessimistic about Russia’s prospects than the Pentagon, which has worked closely with the Ukrainian military to help devise strategy, but assessments across the U.S. government now seem unanimous when it comes to Russia’s prospects on the battlefield.
Russia is well-equipped to arm its military with electronic components from China, drones from Iran, and missiles and artillery from North Korea.
But there aren’t enough people to make significant progress.
Lara Jakes and Anton Troianovsky Contributed report.
