Things could always change in the final days, especially with the mercurial Trump, but his list appears to have been narrowed down.
The Washington Post’s Marianne Levine and Josh Dorsey report that discussions are centered on Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) also remaining in the running. This comes after it was revealed last month that at least eight candidates were under scrutiny.
So how do each top candidate get their votes? Let’s take a closer look.
Marco Rubio: A pragmatic candidate who just wants to win
We’ve come a long way since “Little Marco” implicitly criticized Trump’s particular physique during the 2016 campaign.
Strong PointsOf the three likely finalists, Florida Senator Trump makes the most sense if the stakes are to win the 2024 election. Trump may have supported Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, but she would be a bridge to independents and establishment Republicans who are still not convinced to put Trump back in the White House. Haley’s vitriolic attacks on Trump are apparently so recent and prominent that she is second only to her as a candidate.
Rubio, who is Cuban-American, brings diversity to the list of candidates in a way that Vance and Burgum do not and could help solidify recent gains for Trump and the Republican Party among Hispanic voters.
DisadvantageOne wonders whether Trump, scarred by his experience with Pence, would fear a repeat with Rubio, who for four years said all the right things (by Trump’s definition) but was called upon to act out of line when it mattered most. Trump may view Rubio as similarly of suspect loyalty.
For example, beyond the aforementioned rivalry in the 2016 campaign, Rubio signed onto a bipartisan report as recently as 2020 that shed some pretty damning light on ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, and in some ways was even more damning than the Mueller report.
And then there’s the issue of residency. Both men live in Florida, and if they want the support of all 30 Florida electors, one of them would have to move. Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal; Dick Cheney only moved from Texas to Wyoming to be George W. Bush’s running mate in 2000. But Rubio is a sitting senator from Florida, so he might have to promise to leave his hometown while he’s in office. Would Trump really go out of his way to get a second choice, a Little Marco?
ConclusionGiven the chaos on the Democratic side, Trump is likely feeling confident today about his chances of winning for the first time in a long time, and that may be a reason to back a running mate who is more focused on the presidency than the campaign.
J.D. Vance: The Choice of MAGA Whisperers
It’s a remarkable development that the Ohio senator and author of “Hillbilly Elegy” has documented the budding MAGA movement, offered harsh criticism of its leaders and helped lead it himself.
Strong Points: If Trump wants someone who understands his movement, arguably better than he understands himself, and can help him move in a more MAGA-like direction in his second term, Vance is the man. As mentioned above, Vance literally wrote the book on this.
Vance also goes a step further than many Republicans in adhering to Trump’s populist, conspiratorial, nationalistic, liberal politics. He has embraced Trump’s cause where other Republicans have shunned it, even suggesting that he would have done what Pence refused to do on January 6. Perhaps no one auditioned more enthusiastically for the job, and as a former president who demands loyalty and allegiance, Vance is better able to provide it than anyone else.
Vance’s age — he turns 40 next month — may also be an attractive factor in a race featuring the two oldest major-party candidates in history.
DisadvantageWhile Vance is more aligned with Trumpism than Rubio, he has been a sharp critic of Trump during the 2016 campaign and early in his presidency. He has likened Trump to heroin, questioned whether he was an American Hitler, liked a tweet linking Trump to sexual assault and criticized his response to the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville.
Vance could also be a drag on his campaign. Not only is he relatively new to politics, having only been elected for the first time in 2022, but he didn’t perform particularly well in that campaign. He did win, but he ran in a Republican-leaning state and performed much worse than all the other Republicans who appeared on the ballot statewide, suggesting he could alienate some of the swing voters Trump is trying to attract.
ConclusionIf Trump is going all-out MAGA and doesn’t care about torpedoes, Vance is the man.
Doug Burgum: Ruler, do no harm
No one in recent history has spent so much money to win so few votes: The governor of North Dakota spent about $28,000 of his own money. Per vote While he didn’t win the 2024 Republican presidential primary, he at least stood out as someone with the potential for a big, even shocking, promotion.
Strong Points: Burgum, a two-term governor, would give Trump an experienced executive (in other words, not a senator) with fewer (known) issues, the two appear to have good personal chemistry, and Trump reportedly sees Burgum as a gateway to wealthy donors.
Burgum, a native of small-town North Dakota, could appeal to Midwestern voters in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in a way that Yale-educated Vance cannot — and Trump surely likes Burgum’s image as a self-made man.
DisadvantageIt’s unclear who would be pleased with Burgum’s selection, but it would be uncharacteristic of Trump to miss the opportunity to pick someone who will be a talking point during and after the Republican National Convention.
Burgum also doesn’t seem like a MAGA true believer — he’s never even played one — and his lack of thorough vetting could be a problem outside of a relatively low-profile race in North Dakota. So Trump doesn’t necessarily have an ideological ally like Vance. or Campaign supporters like Rubio.
Conclusion: Burgum makes sense if Trump is basically hoping the spotlight stays on him and he doesn’t do anything (including do any harm) with this pick.
The other five names of the eight candidates vetted by the Trump campaign are: Senator Tom Cotton (Republican, Arkansas) Senator Tim Scott (R.S.C.), Congresswoman Elise Stefanick (R.N.Y.), Representative Byron Donald (R-FL) Former Housing Secretary Ben Carson.
Perhaps the most notable omission from the three potential finalists is Scott, the nation’s highest-profile black Republican, who Trump has praised for his qualities as a surrogate and who has often been considered a leading candidate for the vice presidential nomination.
Stefanik and other female candidates have a point, but it seems like they’ve moved away from female candidates over time.
It wouldn’t be much of a surprise, as Pence was one of the three finalists in the 2016 election, but the possibility cannot be ruled out.
