If Democrats want a candidate other than Joe Biden, they need to fight for delegates in Chicago, and they need to start preparing now.
It is estimated that 1,968 pledged delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination, and Biden has 3,896 of the 3,903 pledged delegates. The remaining 36 have not pledged. On the surface, Biden has it all in hand, leaving no room for the Democrats to change course.
Democratic National Committee rules state that “every delegate to the convention who supports a candidate for president shall do so in accordance with his or her conscience, reflecting the sentiments of the people who elected him or her.” But polls taken after Biden’s dismal performance in the June 27 debate showed that roughly half of Democrats have lost confidence in him and want someone else.
A Morning Consult poll conducted on June 28th found that “47% of Democrats say Biden should not be considered for the presidency.” A CNN poll conducted from June 28th to 30th found that “a majority of Democrats and registered voters who lean Democratic (56%) say the party would be more likely to win if someone other than Biden became president, while 43% said the party would be more likely to win if Biden became president.” A national poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University on June 29th and 30th also found that “Democrats are divided over Joe Biden’s candidacy for president, with 40% supporting Biden as the candidate and 45% thinking he should be replaced by another Democrat.”
There are an ever-larger number of Democrats eager for alternatives: In the summer of 2022, 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said in a CNN poll that they wanted the party to nominate someone else. But that was when Biden’s reelection campaign was in theory. There are about 40 days until the Democratic convention, where the decision will be made official.
Convention delegates are typically the most ardent supporters of their candidates, but even Biden’s strongest supporters may have recently been shaken in their confidence. Delegates who are increasingly skeptical about the viability of Biden’s candidacy could reasonably argue that voting to nominate him without discussing or consulting other options no longer reflects “the sentiment of the people who elected them.”
Another issue is whether state laws can require Democratic delegates to vote for candidates they initially pledged their support to on a certain number of ballots. As of 2022, one-third of states have such laws, according to Ballotpedia.
The first problem here is enforcement. Will the Michigan State Police, for example, rush to Chicago to enforce the Michigan law that states that “delegates to the national convention are bound to vote for the presidential candidate for which they have declared their support until the first ballot has been cast at the convention”? Will there be prosecutors to charge Michigan delegates with violating state law?
The second question is whether state law overrides the DNC’s “conscience” rules: Is it the DNC or state legislatures that decide who the Democrats nominate?
If Biden’s delegates rebelled and voted for another candidate, they could make a compelling argument that they no longer believed Biden could perform the job and wanted another candidate nominated, and it would be unreasonable to argue that state law required delegates to vote for a particular candidate no matter what, even if that candidate had suffered a stroke or was clearly incapacitated for some other reason.
Charlie Spiess, a former adviser to the Republican National Committee and former adviser to the chairman of the Federal Election Commission, has argued that Biden cannot transfer his expected $100 million in campaign funds to VP Harris or other Democrats until he is formally nominated. This sounds like something a lawyer would argue, but it could give Biden an argument that he must be the nominee even if delegates prefer another candidate.
It will be a tough road for Democrats who are skeptical of Biden. By the Fourth of July holiday, many of Biden’s delegates had signaled their intention to support him. But at 81 years old, Biden is unlikely to get through the coming weeks and months without another poor performance. Far from getting older, Biden is not magically getting sharper, more eloquent or more energetic.
Barring serious health issues, there is no divine will lurking to oust Biden. He doesn’t seem interested in leaving the party, and party elders can’t force him out. The only option left is a massive defection of Biden’s delegates. Even if it’s not clear that an insurrection would cost him the total needed for the nomination, a significant display of delegate discontent could move Biden in a way that an attack by a handful of Democrats could not.
Which option would make Democrats more nervous: the risk of a messy convention fight or another run with Biden as the top contender?
