With the United States and its Western allies weakened on the international stage, restoring deterrence must become a top priority for NATO75.Number Commemorative summit kicks off today in Washington DC
In the recent presidential debates, more energy was spent arguing over who is fit to be president and even golf scores than on what America and the West should do next to protect our collective democratic capitalist future from challengers like China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Nothing is more important than the security and defense of the nation. The President of the United States is in the unenviable position of serving as Commander in Chief, often without the proper background or experience, while also dealing with a myriad of other pressing political, economic and social issues.
Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images
President Joe Biden’s continuation of Barack Obama’s “lead from the back” foreign policy approach has damaged both the United States and NATO. Those who lead from the back never win, and the United States is not trying to win — not in Afghanistan, not in the Middle East, not even in Ukraine, where Biden should indeed be commended for helping the victims of Russian aggression, but who has failed badly to effectively deter Moscow.
Biden has also been a dismal disappointment in the Middle East, allowing Iran to wreak havoc through its proxies; the Houthis have cut shipping by 50 percent through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, vital economic routes; Hezbollah attacks have made northern Israel uninhabitable, leaving 100,000 people internally displaced;
Biden’s easing of sanctions on Tehran has allowed Islamist leaders to increase their training and support for Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah in Iraq, and other terrorist organizations. Finally, Biden has failed to rein in Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan, a NATO ally who now directly threatens Israel.
Failure to deter and contain aggression could escalate into nuclear war, a significant risk facing our nation. In addition to Russia and China, both of which are fully capable of engaging in a devastating nuclear war with the United States, other aggressive-minded nations with nuclear capabilities could escalate regional conflict. Iranian leaders appear fixated on crossing the brink of nuclear war, having developed their capabilities during years of hesitating over the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.
To deal with this scenario, the United States and its allies need to restructure and step up to deter our adversaries and promote peace. Negotiating without having produced many tactical warheads or hypersonic missiles will not work. We must expand our arsenals and strengthen our military capabilities while simultaneously working to restore the nuclear-armed states and the Comprehensive Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty system. And we must use our leaders in China and Russia to appeal to their peoples to maintain peace.
Another major geopolitical challenge is in Europe. We may have oceans between us, but oceans cannot stop missiles and drones. Ultimately, the fate of Europe will affect the future of America. Weakened and flawed American leadership will only push European countries into the far left, far right, or into the pocket of Russia.
In the recent presidential debate, Trump boasted that Putin would not have attacked Ukraine under his administration (hypothetically), but continues to express doubts about the future of NATO. He seems hopeful, albeit a long shot, that European nations will be able to defend themselves with their own funds. Let’s stay hopeful.
Supporting the Ukrainian struggle may be unpopular with some, but leaving this battlefield to Russia’s mercy will likely invite further Russian aggression. As the Russian proverb goes, “the appetite comes with the food.”
Whoever becomes president in 2024 will face unprecedented threats. Trump’s sunshine diplomacy with Kim Jong Un has failed. North Korea is now a vicious stooge of Russia. If Trump retakes the White House, he will find himself facing a Putin who is far more arrogant and desperate than he was when they met in Helsinki.
American influence in the developing world is also waning, and some countries are beginning to spread their bets between the US and other great powers. That is why most Latin American countries remain neutral on the Ukraine war. Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are, of course, strong supporters of Putin. If this trend continues, the US risks allowing its neighbors to become prey to peer competitors. Russia, China, and Iran are on the move, and Beijing and Moscow are seeking to expand their bases as they push for an alternative world order. As Cuba’s Chinese intelligence expands, the next president will have to act.
To reverse Russian and Chinese expansion into the Global South, the next administration would be wise to launch a major intelligence engagement effort that goes beyond the current rigid and ineffective Cold War-style international broadcasting. The United States should also increase funding to the International Development Finance Corporation to counter Beijing. Biden and Trump may agree on the need to compete with and constrain China. There is a lot of work to be done there, no matter who wins the election.
We face the greatest test for the United States since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and perhaps since World War II. The next president must restore American deterrence in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region through strong coalitions and a massive (and expensive) arms buildup.
Over the next four years, the United States will very likely face a war bigger than either the Vietnam War or the Korean War. Great leadership will be required. The next President will need the support and cooperation of the American government, the American people, and our allies to shoulder the burden of Western democracy, maintain and strengthen deterrence, and avert a major global conflict.
Dr. Ariel Cohen is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council andRussian Imperialism: Development and Crisis“(Praeger Greenwood)”
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
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