ASTANA – Kazakhstan is well positioned to meet growing global demand driven by the energy transition and the electric vehicle market and ensure a stable supply of critical minerals. According to a summary of analysis by experts from the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) Secretariat, AIFC Press Service reported on July 9, there are nine groups of commodities that Kazakhstan has already exported and has the potential to export, including promising resources such as lithium, nickel, gold and rare earth metals.
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Currently, Kazakhstan has a competitive advantage in exporting zinc, copper, lead, silver and aluminum. The country accounts for approximately 5% of the global zinc market and has 6.7 million tonnes of reserves as of 2023, ranking 7th in the world. Kazakhstan’s main export destinations for zinc include: TürkiyeRussia and China account for approximately 70%.
Kazakhstan’s copper market share is nearly 4%, making it the 11th largest in the world with reserves of 20 million tons. The main export markets for copper are China, Türkiyeand the United Arab Emirates are major producers. Kazakhstan’s major market share is nearly 3%. In 2021, the country’s reserves were 2 million tonnes, ranking 8th in the world, and mine production was 40,000 tonnes, ranking 12th. Global demand forecasts expect demand to grow from 11.6 million tonnes in 2022 to 13.4 million tonnes by 2031.
The country has the world’s third-largest silver reserves, and current annual demand is partly driven by the green energy sector. In a net-zero emissions scenario, green demand for silver could increase from 4,000 to 9,000 tons by 2030.
Kazakhstan’s global aluminum market share is less than 1%. In 2023, the country’s bauxite reserves will be 160 million tonnes, ranking 11th in the world, and its mine production will be 4.3 million tonnes, ranking 10th. Türkiye, The top three destinations for the country’s aluminum exports in 2022 were Italy and Greece.
Kazakhstan’s export-driven metals
According to the report, Indonesia ranks first in nickel reserves and mining in the world. Kazakhstan is in the top 20 countries by nickel reserves, but its share of the global nickel market is only about 0%. Nickel reserves are about 1.5 million tons, equivalent to 2% of the world total. Global nickel demand is expected to increase from the current 3 million tons to 3.9-5.8 million tons in 2030 and 4.8-6.5 million tons in 2050.
Similarly, Kazakhstan’s lithium sector, centered in the East Kazakhstan region, is expected to grow as new deposits could expand its role in meeting global demand forecasts of 312,000-721,000 tonnes by 2030. Potential deposits could be in drying lakes in the Aral Sea region and the Caspian lowland. In March 2024, the Korea Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources discovered a new lithium deposit in East Kazakhstan with a grade of 5.3%. Its value is estimated at $15.7 billion.
The country’s strategic approach also includes expanding its rare earth metals (REM) sector, which has seen a strong increase in exports since 2020 and has large reserves concentrated in the Mangistau region. Plans outlined in Kazakhstan’s 2024-2028 REM Comprehensive Plan include significant investments aimed at further developing the sector, potentially tapping resources estimated to be worth trillions of dollars.
Australia is the world’s largest gold reserve, while China is the world’s largest gold producer. In 2022, Kazakhstan ranked 14th in the world in gold reserves with 1,000 tonnes and 7th in gold mine production with 120 tonnes. The country still accounts for less than 1% of world gold exports. Global annual gold demand has remained stable at around 4,400 tonnes over the past decade.
Active engagement with the domestic and international private sector remains important as Kazakhstan seeks not only to supply critical raw materials but also to integrate into global supply chains.Since 2005, the bulk of foreign direct investment, totaling $67 billion, has flowed into Kazakhstan’s metals industry, including critical minerals.
